Pyongyang may feel growing pressure over its nuclear programs


The ongoing Nuclear Security Summit here does not deal specifically with the proliferation issue involving North Korea, but it sends an implicit yet compelling message to Pyongyang: “Stop undermining peace with your nuclear ambitions.”

Through the premier gathering south of the heavily-fortified inter-Korean border, the North may come under growing pressure to stop threatening regional stability with its controversial atomic programs, experts said.

“North Korea will witness what global leaders think about nuclear security and what common direction they choose to tackle nuclear threats at the summit here. This will obviously put Pyongyang under considerable pressure,” said Chun In-young, professor emeritus at Seoul National University.

The top-level security forum focusing on preventing nuclear materials from falling into the wrong hands was initiated in 2010 by Washington seeking to tackle nuclear terrorism through multilateral cooperation.

Though the forum focuses primarily on the mishandling of nuclear materials by non-state actors such as terrorists, experts say participants at the summit will pay due attention to the two states at the center of global nuclear concerns ― North Korea and Iran.

“What the summit deals with is nuclear terrorism. This can also target what the U.S. formerly branded as rogue states like North Korea. Although leaders may not specifically target Pyongyang, all circumstances surrounding the summit will apply much pressure to the North,” said Yu Suk-ryul, professor emeritus at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security.

Yu added that the nuclear summit may make the North seriously think about consequences it will face should it push ahead with its provocative plans including one to launch a “satellite” on a long-range rocket in mid-April. He also raised the possibility of Pyongyang’s third nuclear test after its planned rocket launch.

“We, scholars, pay attention to this continuing pattern of testing the long-range ballistic missile and conducting the nuclear test. But as world leaders gather here to discuss nuclear security, it would make them think seriously about their provocative actions should they have any future plans,” he said.

After it tested the Taepodong-2 ballistic missile in July 2006, the North conducted the first nuclear test in October that year. After testing the ballistic missile again in April 2009, it carried out another nuclear test in May that year.

Amid talk of North Korean issues to be handled on the sidelines of the two-day forum, the North has sharpened its rhetoric, saying that should the summit adopt any statement targeting the North, it would regard it as a “declaration of war.”

“We cannot help but view with grave concerns the Lee Myung-bak traitor group seeking to make the summit a prelude to a provocation to invade the North,” it said earlier this month in a statement carried by its official Korean Central News Agency.

This kind of reaction, experts say, well reflected how much pressure the North feels due to the summit.

Hong Sung-pyo, security expert at Ajou University, said that the fact that North Korea has no presence and no say at the nuclear summit is a significant source of pressure for Pyongyang.

“The South said that it would allow the North to attend the summit, but it dare not come here as it is a state that poses a challenge to nuclear security. Thus, when the world leaders discuss nuclear security here, the North will be driven into the corner and put under pressure,” he said.

Hong, however, noted that there have been “limits” in global efforts to deal with North Korean nuclear issues due to China and Russia taking “equivocal positions” over Pyongyang.

“China and Russia, in fact, have the position that the North should not go in the current direction. But they have shown equivocal positions on the North due to the current structure of international politics,” he said. “Their strong historical connections are apparently at work for China and Russia’s stance.”

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)