The power of Jang Song-thaek, late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law, has been overestimated, an expert said Thursday, countering the widespread assumptions over his role as a key regent facilitating the hereditary power succession.

Cheong Seong-chang, senior fellow at Sejong Institute, also said that successor Jong-un’s leadership capabilities have been underestimated in the media, stressing that it is wrong to judge the North based on “outsiders’ perspectives.”

“Jang is one of the key elites in support of Jong-un. As the husband of his father’s sister, he can access Jong-un when he wants. But he is a figure that other elites keep in check and a ‘limited’ powerbroker,” he told The Korea Herald.

“Regency is impossible. Since Kim Jong-il’s health significantly waned in August 2008, Jong-un, in effect, has controlled all state affairs. Jong-un, not Jang, had reported directly to Kim. Regency is not what Kim Jong-il wanted and the heir would also never accept it.”

After the North announced on Dec. 19 that its leader Kim died of a heart attack on Dec. 17, foreign and domestic media alike paid close attention to the husband of Kim’s younger sister Kyong-hui, saying that he is likely to serve as a regent and even could pose a threat to Jong-un’s leadership.

Jang currently serves as vice chairman of the National Defense Commission and administration director of the ruling Workers’ Party’s Central Committee, a position to have a substantial influence over issues handled at the State Security Department.

On Dec. 24, the North’s state television showed him wearing a military uniform with a four-star general’s insignia, reinforcing the speculation that he would have substantial control over the ruling party as well as the military.

In September 2010, Kim Jong-il appointed Jong-un, Jang’s wife Kim Kyong-hui and Choe Ryong-hae, a longtime aide to the Kim dynasty, as four-star generals. But he did not give Jang the rank in what analysts call an attempt to prevent him from having too much power.

Cheong said that the full general rank for Jang does not necessarily mean that he would have significant power in the military, and that it signals that Jong-un, who was hailed as “supreme leader,” does not think of him as a potential threat.

He also stressed that it should be noted that there are many more military leaders in higher positions including Ri Yong-ho, chief of the Korean People’s Army General Staff, and Kim Yong-chun, minister of the People’s Armed Forces.

“Given that there are many other military leaders such as Ri and Kim, it is unimaginable that Jang, who has just been given the four-star rank, will serve as a regent for Jong-un, who is now called supreme commander,” Cheong said.

“Even though he was given the rank, it is not that he would control the State Security Department and other security organs through his title in the ruling party.”

Cheong also pointed out that it would not be correct to simply say that the military in the North will play a key role in managing state affairs, expressing concerns over a “lopsided, hasty” interpretation of the reclusive state’s movements.

“On Dec. 24, Jong-un flanked by top military brass paid respects to his late father in a glass coffin as shown on television. (The media) immediately interpreted it as the military being at the center of state management,” he said.

“But on Dec. 26, Jong-un and all top officials from the party and military paid tribute to the late leader. Then we should say that the military and party together will lead state affairs. But none of them said that. We cannot understand the reality with the biased perspective.”

Cheong added that Kim appears to have already done much to establish a charismatic leadership to lead the country of the 24 million people.

“What was shown in the state media indicates that Kim had taken control of the elites in North Korea. He also looks charismatic in some way. Any resistance to his legitimacy could lead to execution as reported widely. It is not a society that can be judged through our common understanding,” he said.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)